{"id":1697,"date":"2016-01-19T22:44:45","date_gmt":"2016-01-19T21:44:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.munich-business-school.de\/insights\/?p=1697"},"modified":"2016-02-03T09:55:41","modified_gmt":"2016-02-03T08:55:41","slug":"why-taiwan-matters-en","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.munich-business-school.de\/insights\/en\/2016\/why-taiwan-matters-en\/","title":{"rendered":"„Why Taiwan Matters“: Implications of the Result of Taiwan\u2019s Presidential Elections"},"content":{"rendered":"

Tsai Ing-wen (\u8521\u82f1\u6587) is Taiwan\u2019s new president. In the presidential elections on January 16, she received the support of 56.1 percent of the electorate\u2019s votes. Tsai Ing-wen achieved a result of historical dimensions: She will be the first female President on the island which \u2013 according to the People\u2019s Republic of China \u2013 is a part of the communist-led country, but – in the view of the majority of its electorate \u2013 is a sovereign entity independent from the PR of China.<\/p>\n

\"Tsai
Tsai Ing-wen (\u8521\u82f1\u6587)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Whereas Tsai Ing-wen\u2019s candidacy had failed by a narrow margin four years ago against Ma Ying-jeou (\u99ac\u82f1\u4e5d), the candidate of the Kuomintang (KMT), now \u2013 after eight years of government by Ma Ying-jeou \u2013 the parliament will be led by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). For the first time in history, DPP also reached the absolute majority in the parliament.<\/p>\n

This was the punishment to KMT for its rapid approximation to the PR of China, driven by its president Ma Ying-jeou in the past years, which had alarmed many Taiwanese citizens: 23 cooperation agreements alone were signed with the PR of China under his governance.<\/p>\n

Since the end of the Civil War in 1949, the societies of Taiwan and China, however, have dramatically developed into two completely different directions. 59 percent of the population understand themselves, above all else, as „Taiwanese“, and only 34 percent as „Chinese and Taiwanese“. Not least because of the students\u2019 protests in the past few years and the entry of the rising „New Power Party“ into Taiwan\u2019s parliament have made obvious that the younger generation in particular have developed their own Taiwanese identity: To them, the Chinese mainland is a foreign and potentially threatening country.<\/p>\n

Consequences of the election results \u2013 an overview<\/b><\/p>\n

What are the implications of these election results with regard to the Taiwanese-Chinese relations?<\/p>\n

\"Seats
Seats in the Taiwanese Parliament 2016<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

For Taiwan:<\/b><\/p>\n

For a start, the approximation process to the PR of China will definitely slow down. An important topic for future talks will be the recognition of the „1992 Consensus“ by the new government. According to this consensus, the PR of China and Taiwan both recognize that there is only one China \u2013 even if both sides interpret it differently.<\/p>\n

So far, Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP have always contested this consensus under which talks took place among the delegates of both sides. But it is the island\u2019s economic dependence from the Chinese mainland itself that renders a complete separation absolutely impossible. It will be Tsai Ing-wens tasks to do equal justice to her party\u2019s hardliners and moderates \u2013 before the background of having to develop the relationships with the People\u2019s Republic of China. Veritably, a Herculean task.<\/p>\n

For China:<\/b><\/p>\n

For the government of the PR of China, the election result is the worst possible political result of the ongoing approchement to Taiwan. The strategy of tightly binding Taiwan economically and thus intricately integrating it into its own economic system to be finally able to swallow it politically all the easier at a later stage, has met with clear resistance in particular of the young generation in Taiwan. However, at the same time, China cannot simply let go of Taiwan, as this would lead to independence movements in various regions all over the Middle Kingdom.<\/p>\n

Much depends on the chronically intransparent political situation on the mainland. For the moment, patience is required. As long as China cannot convince Taiwan\u2019s young generation of the advantages China has to offer, resistance against the People\u2019s Republic will not decrease. The election result also represents a defeat for president Xi Jinping, who had met Taiwan\u2019s president (the „leader“ from the Chinese view) as late as in November. It will be critical for the future cooperation where and on what level the Chinese government will hold the next talks with Taiwan\u2019s new government.<\/p>\n

Of course, China has many possibilities to put pressure on the new government, because Taiwan\u2019s economy is extremely dependent on China: The Chinese tourists on Taiwan alone have a share of two percent to the island\u2018s gross national product and is said to generate up to one million jobs.<\/p>\n

For the region:<\/b><\/p>\n

The new power structures in Taipei also imply a new outlook onto the islands in the South China Sea, which are claimed \u2013 inter alia \u2013 by China, Vietnam, the Philippines and Taiwan. In view of Taiwan\u2019s history, Kuomintang always placed high priority on sovereignty in the South China Sea; the DPP, however, holds very little interest in the islands. But giving up the relevant claims would be cumbersome to China, who \u2013 as everybody knows \u2013 claims Taiwan. From this perspective, the islands in the South China Sea might become an interesting negotiation issue for Taiwan.<\/p>\n

For the USA:<\/b><\/p>\n

Since the recognition of the PR of China at the end of the seventies, the USA are bound by agreement to provide military assistance to Taiwan to protect its sovereignty. Immediately after the announcement of the election results, various representatives of the American government affirmed their support for the still young democracy. As a military conflict between China and Taiwan would lead to an American involvement in an armed confrontation, the mere promises weigh heavy for the region\u2019s stability.<\/p>\n

For the world:<\/b><\/p>\n

Most of the world\u2019s national states will take note of the election results and recognize the democratic achievements of Taiwan. However, they will not recognize Taiwan itself as a country, because \u2013 according to the predominantly supported „One-China-Policy“ \u2013 this would lead to a disruption of diplomatic relations with the PR of China. Thus, motivated by economic reasons, hardly any country will opt for the acknowledgement of president Tsai Ing-wen (in Europe, by the way, this would only be the Vatican).<\/p>\n

With Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan elected a very experienced politician into the presidential office. Between 2000 and 2004, the lawyer who graduated with a Ph.D. from the London School of Economics already chaired the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) and thus is very knowledgeable with the complexities of the relations across the Taiwan Strait.<\/p>\n

Into the direction of the US and China, she already announced that she intends to maintain Taiwan\u2019s status quo (implying that she neither aims for formal independence of Taiwan from China nor intends a reunification); but in principle, she belongs to the fraction that supports Taiwan\u2019s independence. It will be worth-while to watch the developments in Asia\u2018s fifth-largest economic power during the coming months to see what this landslide victory of the DDP means for Taiwan.<\/p>\n

Sources:<\/p>\n

– Image 1, 2: Wikipedia
\n– Image 3: Taipei Times<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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Dr. Christian Schmidkonz ist Studiengangsleiter des Programms \"Master International Business\" an der Munich Business School. Seine Lehr- und Forschungsschwerpunkte liegen in den Bereichen Conscious Business, Happiness at Work sowie Wirtschaft in China und Taiwan. Christian Schmidkonz h\u00e4lt ein Diplom in Volkswirtschaftslehre von der Ludwig-Maximilians-Universit\u00e4t in M\u00fcnchen. Er studierte Chinesisch an der Fu Jen Universit\u00e4t in Taiwan und ist Alumnus des Deutschen Akademischen Austauschdienstes (DAAD). Nach Stationen am ifo Institut f\u00fcr Wirtschaftsforschung und bei der internationalen Unternehmensberatung Capgemini gewann er als Entrepreneur 2008 den vom Bundesministerium f\u00fcr Wirtschaft und Technologie ausgeschriebenen Gr\u00fcndungswettbewerb \u201eMultimedia\u201c. Christian Schmidkonz wurde 2020 mit dem erstmalig vergebenen \u201eMBS Teaching Award\" ausgezeichnet.","url":"https:\/\/www.munich-business-school.de\/insights\/author\/cschmidkonz\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.munich-business-school.de\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1697","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.munich-business-school.de\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.munich-business-school.de\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.munich-business-school.de\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.munich-business-school.de\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1697"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.munich-business-school.de\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1697\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2029,"href":"https:\/\/www.munich-business-school.de\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1697\/revisions\/2029"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.munich-business-school.de\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1706"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.munich-business-school.de\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1697"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.munich-business-school.de\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1697"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.munich-business-school.de\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1697"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.munich-business-school.de\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=1697"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}